From the Albuquerque Journal:
I just learned from a source very close to Rep. Tom Udall that the Democratic congressman will NOT seek the U.S. Senate seat that Pete Domenici will vacate at the end of 2008.The source tells me that Udall, after some serious soul-searching over the past 24 hours, has decided that he can do a better job for New Mexico in the U.S. House, where he has a coveted spot on the appropriations committee.
“It was not a decision that was made lightly,” the source told me. “He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House.”
I hope this doesn’t mean that we’ll be saddled with a Marty Chavez candidacy.
Race Tracker: NM-Sen
This is terrible news!!!! I guess my second choice (well, my first choice, now that Udall said no) is Denish. She has proven that she can win statewide. And a term or two in the senate could strengthen her eventual gubernatorial bid. I just hope the nomination goes to neither Chavez nor Madrid.
We are now without our two best candidates (Richardson and Udall) in a race that could easily be a lean-Dem in a good year, as 2008 is shaping up to be. It will still be a toss-up though. And I still hold out hope that Richardson will come back after 2/5/08 and other Dems will drop out in his favor (as in NH).
Denish?
With Udall out and Wilson in, this is definitely toss-up or better for the GOP.
Super Duper Tuesday (Feb. 12 vs. Feb. 8).
Plus, he’s term-limited for Governorship, so that’s his only alternative unless he wants to hold out for the VP slot. And that’s unlikely as it’s well-known that Gore passed him over because of rumors of, shall we say, behavior that were too similar to the Clinton behavior from which he was trying to distance himself.
So, it’s run for the Senate or hold out for a Cabinet position, which would still depend on a Dem winning in 2008, which is no sure bet.
Plus, the Albuquerque mayor is a real DINO, he’s already on record saying that not only would he not run against Domenici, but that he would vote for him— that ain’t gonna win you a Democratic primary, so that leaves the newbie non-politicals (who seem like genuine, good progressives but would probably lose in their first campaign) or the Lt. Gov. Denish, who’s already running for the Governorship in 2010 and would screw herself for that if she flip-flopped back and forth between them.
Nah, I say the Albuquerque Mayor runs, but then steps aside or gets steamrolled once Richardson bails from the Presidency, and then… hoorah! he wins in a landslide.
tell Richardson to run for the Senate instead. John Adams described the vice-presidency as “the most insignificant office that ever the Invention of man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” With Bayh on the ticket, HRC has just as good a chance to win NM. Start a letter campaign to Richardson and TELL him to switch course.
I mean this quite seriously.
Denish seems the strongest candidate. But given that she seems to be a heavy favorite for the governor’s race, who else is there in case she doesn’t run – since the consensus here seems to be that Chavez and Madrid aren’t good candidates.
Can anyone speak to the progressive credentials and popularity of John Kelly? Gary King? Others who’ve run statewide? Maybe Geno Zamora?
I’m sure Richardson would be willing to be bored for eight years, for a chance to do the same.
I was really hoping for that fillibuster proof majority this time around, I dont think our country can wait another 2 years for 2010….
track on the Governorship and would risk that if she ran for the Senate (though perhaps out of respect Richardson wouldn’t run too if she had declared).
So that leaves only the newbies and the Albuquerque Mayor DINO, none of whom are encouraging against Wilson, so Richardson easily pops in to fill the void.
Of course, if you don’t want to wait for Feb. 5, we should know Richardson’s plans based on what Denish decides to do.
Denish is a better candidate. Much better. She has run and won statewide, is not associated with Santa Fe as much as Udall, and is a woman (women for whatever reason do much better against Wilson than men). If you aren’t in NM and haven’t worked there, trust me on this one. If you are or have, I’d be interested in why you think otherwise!
I’m hoping, bsaed on no inside information, that Udall and Denish have a deal here. And if Denish declares, that increases the chances Richardson will eventually get in (she could be just warming the seat for him).
I seem to remember his name floated out there sometime back. Any word on where he stands on the ideological spectrum? Much less any chance he might run?
I would concede that Madrid is a lackluster candidate but she will defeat Wilson for the 2008 NM US Senate Election.
Madrid has won two statewide elections in NM. elected Attorney General 1998 and 2002. She barely lost in the 2006 NM-1 US House Race to Heather Wilson by less than 1,000 vote. Madrid’s performance in 2008 in NM-1CD against Wilson will be the same However due to scandals involving Wilson and 2008 being a bad year for the GOP. Madrid may narrowly edge Wilson in NM-1CD.
In NM-2(Pearce District). Pearce has not won any of his house races in NM-2 with more than 60% despite mediocre opposition. Madrid loses NM-2 by a 60-40 percent margin to Wilson.
That leave us NM-3(Udall District). Madrid’s margin of victory in NM-3 will be greater than Wilson’s margin of victory in NM-2.
Chavez who comes from Alberquerque(Wilson’s regional base) NM-1 will defeat Wilson in NM-1CD. win NM-3 by a landslide margin and narrowly lose NM-2.
While Madrid and Chavez are not the ideal candidates. Being weak candidates for not being progressive. They are able to win Statewide Election in New Mexico.
New Mexico is a purpleish blue state- In a strong Democratic year. A Mediocre Democrat can defeat a strong Republican.
it takes you to the Green Papers. The previous holders of all those offices were Ds, but the old Treasurer and SoS have some issues.
Does anyone know who held all these statewide offices before 2006?
We know Richardson and Denish were incumbents, as was Madrid, but who held all the other offices, Dems or Republicans? And if Dem, what happened to all these former officeholders? Can any of them run?
Politics1 says all statewide offices (except the sec of Interior or something like that) are currently dem.
See here. They’re all relatively new, but have been tsted in election at least once: Auditor Balderas, Secretary of State Hererra, Treasurer Lewis, and AG King. Also, there’s the former Secretary of State.
Actual New Mexicans should weigh in on how these folks are actually perceived in the state, but at least there’s some bench.
Is he definitely staying in the race? If so, does he stand any chance at all? NM is a relatively inexpensive state to run in, and he looks willing to spend – can he raise his profile and support sufficiently before the primary?
From the Santa Fe New Mexican:
Meanwhile, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the top Democratic contender for the seat, indicated he would remain focused on his presidential campaign, though he did not foreclose a future look at the race if his campaign for the White House falters.
Super Tuesday Primaries are February 5 2008.
The January Primaries are IA,NH,NV,SC,MI,and FL.
States with strong Latino Constituency are
Arizona,California,Colorado,Florida,Illinios,Nevada,New Jersey,New Mexico,New York,and Texas.
Nevada and Florida have primaries on January- Polls show Hillary as the overwhelming favorite.
Arizona,California,Colorado,Illinios,New Jersey,New Mexico,New York have primaries on Feb 5.
Polls show Hillary is the overwhelming favorite in AZ,CA,CO,NJ,and NY. Obama is favored in IL. Richardson wins NM.
Texas Primary is on March- Hillary is the overwhelming favorite.
Because Richardson is going to lose all of the Super Tuesday Primary states except NM. He will drop out February 6 and file his candidacy for the US Senate. .
The NM Primary for Congressional Races is June 2008. Two months before the 2008 DNC Convention.
The big question is can Richardson run for the US Senate and Vice President simultaneously.
It will be wise for second tier Democrats like Madrid or Chavez to enter the race as soon as possible- Start Raising money. The bloggers should treat this race similar to NH prior to Shaheen’s enterance. Before Shaheen- the Democratic candidates were Marchand- the progressive candidate and Katrina Swett- the DLC candidate. Both Marchand and Swett were satisfactory candidate to unseat Sununu. Shaheen is the perfect candidate.
Lets not wait for Richardson to make his move.
and he is not doing too well with Hispanics. Villagarosa endorsed Hillary not his fellow Hispanic. Richardson is at most a 10%er. And he would be a disaster for VP; too much NM dirt too close to surface. Same for senate race though it won’t hurt that much.
First of all, I haven’t forgiven Chavez for his opposition to the city’s minimum wage increase in 2005 (being against abortion, while definitely not a plus in my book, is a VERY far cry from opposing the minimum wage hike), second of all, I learned a long time ago that there is no such thing as a perfect candidate (I’m not that naive, I have a few misgivings about Bingaman, our other senator, but I have had no problem voting for him), but there is a difference between a candidate not being perfect and a candidate being a putz who, before his retirement, felt it appropriate to say that he would support Domenici’s reelection bid.
You know something, I’m actually a very pragmatic liberal, I don’t pretend that a candidate which is not 100% in tune with my thinking is unworthy of support, in fact I argued that Bob Kerrey should be supported in Nebraska, despite his nasty habit of attacking fellow Dems (which, by the way, I’ve taken some heat for) but when I say I have a hard time finding it in me to support him, you should take it as a sign that this is going to be what a lot of New Mexico liberals think about him.
and he is not doing too well with Hispanics. Villagarosa endorsed Hillary not his fellow Hispanic. Richardson is at most a 10%er. And he would be a disaster for VP; too much NM dirt too close to surface. Same for senate race though it won’t hurt that much.
I remember following the 1996 Arkansas US Senate Race which was an open seat due to David Pryor’s retirement.
The leading Republican candidate was then Lt Governor Mike Huckabee who was favored to defeat the leading Democratic candidate Winston Bryant. Huckabee ended up dropping out of the race when then Democratic Governor Jim Guy Tucker got convicted during the Whitewater Scandal.
The 2008 NM US Senate Race is different.
Diane Denish can run for the US Senate and Richardson can run as Hillary’s VP runningmate the same time. Lets say both of them win. Denish gets sworn in the US Senate before Richardson gets sworn in as Vice President.
Denish resigns for post as Lt Governor the day after the November 2008 election in which she wins the open US Senate Seat. Richardson appoints Denish’s replacement as Lt Governor – Richardson appoints Patricia Madrid. who then becomes acting Governor after Richardson retires.
Looking at other Statewide elected officials in New Mexico.
we have Attorney General Gary King- who is the son of former NM Governor Bruce King. ran unsucessful ran for Governor in 1998 lost the primary to Martin Chavez and lost a race for US House in Republican leaning NM-2 in 2004 to Steven Pearce before winning the 2006 NM AG race by a 57-43 percent margin.
and State Treasurer James Lewis who was elected with more than 60% of the popular vote.
have also learned that Big Bill has communicated with the Mayor, telling him he does not plan to go for the Domenici seat and that “you should run.”
A Martin Chavez vs Heather Wilson race will be similar to the 2006 Colorado Governors Race between Bill Ritter vs Bob Beauprez or 2004 Colorado Senate Race between Ken Salazer vs Pete Coors.
Richardson has a excellent chance being selected as Hillary Clinton’s VP runningmate. Being a Governor from the Southwest, Hispanic and strong Foriegn Policy experience.
Is Richardson better suited serving the Hillary Clinton Presidency as a junior Senator of New Mexico- in which he will be a backbencher or as VP or Secretary of State.
Udall has no reason to run in the Senate since he holds a powerful position on the House Appropriations Committee as a member of the majority party. If he runs for the Senate and gets elected he’d lose his position in the Appropriations Committee- Powerful Committee in the US Congress.
Denish is more interested in running for Governor in 2010.
we may be stuck with Chavez. If elected to the US Senate- Chavez will be the New Mexico version of Ken Salazer. A Moderate Democrat unpopular with Progressives.
My support for Chavez is that he is the candidate with the fire in the belly- He’d run strong campaign against Heather Wilson. Chavez can neutralize Wilson’s strength as a moderate and regional strength in Alburqurque. He can respond to negative attack ads- He will be no pushover like Madrid.